An analyst at Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultant Co. said that Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc.—the world’s largest fertilizer producer—probably doesn’t want China to win control in a takeover war with BHP Billiton Ltd.

Xu Hongzhi, a Beijing-based analyst, said by phone, “China’s potash demand will be more substantial in the long run than that of Brazil’s or India’s. Who would want their biggest customer potentially to take control and tell them what to do with their product sales prices?”

This week, BHP Billiton—the world’s biggest mining company—made a hostile $40 billion offer for Potash Corp. after the Canadian company rejected an approach as “grossly inadequate.” Ian Henderson, manager of $7 billion in resource assets at JPMorgan Chase & Co., said Thursday that China may bid for Potash Corp. because it’s dependant on imports from the company.

Xu said, “A number of Chinese companies might be able to afford to buy Potash Corp. The question is whether the company or the Canadian government will allow their strategic resource to be controlled by the Chinese.”

(Thanks to Bloomberg and Wikipedia)